Why arrival risk matters
Delay is only one part of the route decision. A run can stay technically drivable while becoming financially weak because weather, road restrictions, and downtime exposure start stacking together.
We use the phrase arrival risk to describe that broader operating picture: not just when a truck arrives, but whether the run arrives in acceptable shape.
What goes into the model
The research combines explainable route features such as wind exposure, grade pressure, and closure spillover with learned signals from historical timing drift and disruption patterns.
The goal is not to hide the reasoning. The goal is to strengthen the route call while still showing the practical reasons behind it.
- Weather exposure and terrain risk form the first layer.
- Road restrictions and delay spillover add operating pressure.
- Dispatch timing changes how much of that pressure actually lands on the run.